Federal scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced a long-anticipated shift in a powerful global climate pattern on Thursday, April 9, as worry grows about global heat patterns.
NOAA says the La Niña climate pattern has officially come to an end, and thatan El Niño is expected to developlater this year. This has major implications for weather worldwide, and couldimpact the hurricane seasonin both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Some computer models that scientists use to forecast climate patterns said that the oncoming El Niño could be unusually strong, and have dubbed it a potential "Super El Niño," though federal scientists don't use that term.
El Niño, a natural warming of Pacific Ocean water that affects weather around the world, often leads to some of the hottest years on record, such as the record-breaking worldwide average temperature in 2024. The prospect of a strong El Niño has rattled forecasters,who fear an unprecedented wave of global heat into 2027.
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In the meantime, the planet is in an intermediate stage of the cycle, known as "ENSO-neutral."
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Warmer days and blossoming flowers are signs thatspring— which officially began on March 20 — is upon us. See stunning photos of scenes from spring 2026.The Pink Trumpet Tree (Tabebuia Impetiginosa) springs to life at the Hibiscus Fountain in Palm Beach, Fla., March 5, 2026.
La Niña comes to an end
According to NOAA, the just-ended La Niña started in December 2024, when Pacific Ocean water temperatures reached the La Niña threshold.
This La Niña shifted rainfall patterns, whichincluded increasing drynessin the southern U.S. It also slightly cooled global temperatures, when compared with El Niño years, without affecting long‑term global warming. La Niña also favored a more active Atlantic hurricane pattern and colder winters across portions of the northern U.S.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.
Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.
'Super' El Niño?
Although there’s no formal NOAA El Niño category called "Super," the term is often used when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are up to 2 degrees (Celsius) above average for several months — similar to what happened during the El Niños of 1997–98 or 2015–16.
"Right now, there's about a 15% chance of a Super El Niño by the end of this hurricane season [Nov. 30], which we've only seen once since the year 2000," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva, in an email to USA TODAY.
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Although a "Super El Niño" is possible, federal scientists from the Climate Prediction Center are more cautious:
"The possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Niño during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter," NOAA scientists said in a report released Thursday, April 9. "The possibility of a very strong El Niño largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured."
In the report, NOAA scientists said that by May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.
Spring predictability barrier
A known weakness in climate forecasting, the so-called "spring predictability barrier" occurs when El Niño and La Niña forecasts made in spring (roughly March–May) are significantly less reliable than forecasts made during other times of year, according to NOAA.
"During this time of year, forecast models can be untrustworthy when predicting timing and strength," said AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in an email to USA TODAY. "So we still need to be cautious. But it looks more and more that an El Niño is coming."
How does El Niño influence hurricanes?
El Niño can have a huge impact on the severity of the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and the Pacific: It tends to reduce activity in the Atlantic and boost activity in the Pacific.
"Typically, El Niño leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic," said associate scientistAndy Hazelton of the University of Miamiin an email to USA TODAY. "This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf."
Conversely, "El Niño years are typically associated with more activity in the eastern Pacific," said NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster Matthew Rosencrans.
Winter impacts of El Niño
During an El Niño winter, the southern third of the United States typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third sees enhanced chances of below-normal precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Additionally, Pastelok said that a strong to super El Niño can bring big storms to the West Coast, and a strong southern storm track, rich with moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, to produce powerful East Coast storms.
Why do we care about El Niño?
The ENSO cycle is the primary factor government scientists consider when announcing their winter weather forecast because it mainly influences our weather in the colder months. Except for its impact on hurricanes, El Niño doesn’t have a strong summer climate impact for most of the country,NOAA said.
And as the World Meteorological Organization says, "seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management."
"They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, in astatement.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Super El Niño? NOAA announces major climate shift
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